The US dollar remains the world's reserve currency. India is the largest country by population. The EU continues as a global force for regulation on critical emergent issues like privacy and data use.
And yet, beneath these surface statistics, there is an unmistakable sense that a fundamental shift is happening in the global political landscape.
Since 2013, under Xi Jinping's leadership, China has dramatically expanded its global economic and political reach. The Belt and Road Initiative now encompasses 149 countries that have signed cooperation agreements, accounting for nearly 75% of the world's population and over half of global GDP. In 2024 alone, BRI engagement reached record highs with $70.7 billion in construction contracts and $51 billion in investments.
While China has been building this infrastructure empire, the United States has been moving in the opposite direction. The US foreign aid budget faces dramatic reductions—from $58.8 billion in FY2025 to a proposed $31 billion in FY2026, a 47% cut. In early 2025, nearly 5,800 multiyear USAID contracts worth $54 billion were eliminated, representing a 92% reduction.
European allies are following suit. Germany's development budget has fallen from €13.8 billion in 2022 to a projected €10.3 billion in 2025, with humanitarian aid slashed by 53%. The UK is reducing its aid spending to 0.3% of GNI by 2027, marking its lowest level since 2007. These cuts represent a fundamental reordering of priorities—from global development to domestic defense spending.
China's ambitions extend far beyond roads and railways. The Digital Silk Road has established 34 terrestrial cables and dozens of underwater cables within 12 BRI countries, with related investments reaching an estimated $79 billion as of 2018. China is positioning itself as a moderator in global conflicts, offering alternatives to Western-led diplomatic frameworks, and expanding its role within UN institutions and BRICS. Meanwhile, it has become more assertive with countries in its sphere of influence, raising questions about what kind of global order a more powerful China would create.
Critics highlight significant vulnerabilities that may undermine its ambitions, including a property crisis has devastated household wealth. An estimated 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in real estate, yet prices continue to fall and approximately 2 million homes remain unfinished.
The question is whether these weaknesses will slow China's rise in 10 years or 100 years. Even a weakened China with $3 trillion in annual BRI trade and global manufacturing dominance represents a transformed world order.
So is the rise of China inevitable? And if so, is this good or bad for global peace, prosperity, and security?
